The job market for executives and managers is still bad but the worst might be over. The economy appears to be stabilizing and there are signs that the recession is easing and hiring is likely to pick up.

The Recruiters’ Confidence Index Inches Up

One of the signs of life comes from a tracking device created by my company. We introduced the ExecuNet Recruiter Confidence Index (RCI) in May 2003. Data for the RCI is based on our monthly survey of executive search firms. Designed to forecast job growth at the executive level, a reading below 50% indicates that recruiters expect the number of search assignments in the next 6 months to decrease. Independent analysis of the RCI has confirmed its reliability as a leading indicator for the executive employment market.

The good news is that in April the RCI inched higher for the second consecutive month. Check out the visuals:

Confidence in the Executive Employment Market Next 6 Months

Source: ExecuNet

Analyzing the RCI Results

"While many recruiters are still wary about the economy, a growing number are beginning to see signs that the worst of the recession may very well be over," says Mark Anderson, president of ExecuNet. "Executive search firms, particularly those that specialize in high growth industries such as healthcare, biotech, energy, environmental services and clean technologies have seen a clear improvement in assignment growth in recent weeks."

Recruiters' short-term confidence also increased slightly in April, with 18% reporting that they’re confident or very confident that the executive employment market will improve during the next 3 months — up from 15% in March.

Conclusion

It was November 1941. The British 8th Army under Montgomery had just defeated Rommel’s vaunted Afrika Korps at El Alamein. It was the first significant land victory for English forces in the war. In a speech, Churchill lauded the accomplishment not as “the beginning of the end, but perhaps the end of the beginning.”

Okay, I know that invoking Churchill to hail a back-to-back monthly uptick in the RCI is more than a little presumptuous. Recovering from this recession is likely to take months if not years. But when all is said and done, I do believe we may be witnessing the end of the beginning.

Wishing you career success,
Lauryn Franzoni
ExecuNet, www.execunet.com

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