February 5, 2008 was “Super Tuesday.” But Mother Nature stole some of the day’s headlines from the politicians as tornadoes swept through nine states. The storms, the second deadliest February tornado outbreak on record, had been forecasted days in advance. Even so, the tornadoes claimed 57 lives (in Alabama, Arkansas, Kentucky and Tennessee), the largest fatality toll from a tornado event since 1985.

What went wrong? Why didn’t more people heed the ample warnings issued before the storms touched down and move to safer shelter? A new report from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) provides some answers:

• Relatively few of the warnings contained “call to action” statements indicating the danger of the situation, e.g., “this is an extremely dangerous and life-threatening situation”;
• Many of the warnings contained statements that made it unclear if there was a tornado on the ground, e.g., “Doppler Radar indicated a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado”;
• Radio stations in the region didn’t issue warnings in a coordinated manner;
• Many warnings varied from established training practices and didn’t account for rapid storm motions;
• The various Weather Forecast Offices involved used slightly different warning methods and software;
• Most people did receive some warning but the majority waited for confirmation of the threat before acting;
• Many minimized their personal risks because of the perception that tornadoes happen in spring rather than February and “always strike somebody else”; and
• Among the vast majority that didn’t seek safer shelter were numerous people in manufactured homes which are notoriously vulnerable to tornadoes due to their lack of a foundation.

This case study involves tornadoes. But one might ask how many of these insights about the failure of warning systems and the perceptions of those who receive warnings apply to other forms of hazards, including those found within the workplace.

Source: “Super Tuesday Tornado Outbreak of Feb. 5-6, 2008,” U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, March 2, 2009, http://www.weather.gov/os/assessments/pdfs/super_tuesday.pdf

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